The order has to cover the target period and the whole lead time, because stock keeps selling while the order is in transit, so a long lead time raises the suggestion sharply. Where a minimum order quantity is recorded for the product with that supplier, it acts as a floor: if the calculation asks for 12 units and the minimum is 50, the suggestion is 50.
Check these in order
The lead time on the row
Check the lead time on the supplier before assuming the forecast is wrong. A product with no supplier, or a supplier with no lead time, uses the default from Settings.Your cover target
The default is 45 days. Cover target plus lead time is the window the order has to fill.A recent sales spike
The rate uses the last 90 days. A burst of sales in that window lifts the rate until it drops out.
How to fix it
Correct the supplier's Lead time (days) on the Suppliers page, or lower the Cover target (days) in Settings → Forecasting. You can also change the quantity on the draft purchase order before you mark it as ordered.
For example, a product selling 2 a day with a 45-day cover target and a 30-day lead time needs (45 + 30) × 2 = 150 units, less what you have on hand and incoming.
If it still is not working
Send us the SKU and your store domain through contact support and we will check the numbers behind that row.
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